Written by Atty. Joseph Philip T. Andres
Midterm elections have always been used by Malacanang as a measuring gauge on how well (or poorly) they have performed through the electorate’s acceptance of the administration’s anointed candidates for both national and local elective posts.
The May 12 elections, especially the senatorial race makes for an interesting study on possible shifting preferences or effective campaign models. Of the original 12-candidate slate of the administration’s Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas (Alyansa), only 5 were able to end up in the winning circle (Erwin Tulfo, Ping Lacson, Tito Sotto, Pia Cayetano and Lito Lapid). 2 other winning senatorial candidates from Alyansa – presidential sister Imee Marcos and Camille Villar – were adopted by rival PDP-Laban.
3 PDP-Laban “originals” made it to the winning circle (Bong Go, Ronald Dela Rosa, Rodante Marcoleta) while the list of winners was completed by returning senators Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino.
Incumbent senators Bong Revilla and Francis Tolentino failed in their attempt for a fresh mandate which goes to show that the concept of “equity of the incumbent” is shaky at best.
The most eye-opening aspect of this senatorial elections is perhaps the complete surprise on the performance of Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan and Rodante Marcoleta. The major survey outfits – Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia- did not have them in their radar yet they ranked 2nd, 5th and 6th respectively.
The recent political exercise shows that after the engagement with the survey subject, survey outfits have no way of knowing what is really happening in the ground and how operators work their “magic”. All the “magic” happens in the grassroots where the true status of the electorate dictates how they will vote. What aids the process is the fact that what used to be known as vote buying has somehow evolved into the concept of “ayuda”. As they say, all politics is local.
This unprecedented “sprint” in the final stretch accomplished by Aquino, Pangilinan and Marcoleta goes to show that surveys are just indicators and should not in any way be interpreted as an advance copy of the electoral results. Sadly, surveys can be “weaponized” by people who have the financial means to do so in order to condition the minds of the electorate to just go with what the majority thinks and stop being discerning.
Another theory in possibly explaining how the electoral results somehow blindsided political pundits is the presence of a new generation of voters which we know as “Gen Z”. Gen Z are typically self-driven, collaborative, and diverse-minded. They value flexibility and authenticity – traits that hopefully will make our electorate reintroduce itself on the necessity of discerning who we chose to lead us. Trust me, my daughter was a first time voter and those Gen Z traits in relation to her choices were clearly palpable.
Hopefully, the Gen Z and the future voters (whatever nomenclature they will be called) of this country will be the critical force that will make our political exercises relevant again – issue, competence and performance based and not a mere popularity contest.
Politics as Family Tradition
The value we Filipinos put on family manifests in all aspects of life — and politics is no exception. In non-collegial elective positions, we have seen that a next of kin takes over once term limits have been reached. The practice has evolved in the senate as its composition is fast becoming a family affair. And in the senate variant, they no longer wait for the term to end and they just do it concurrently.
When the Senate commences its regular session it will have a number of members bearing the same family name. We will have the Cayetanos (Allan and Pia), the Estradas/Ejercitos (Jinggoy and JV) the Tulfos (Erwin and Raffy) and the Villars (Camille and Mark). The Tulfos narrowly missed a never achieved trifecta as sibling Ben ended up (unlucky) 13th.
Those who are waiting for the passage of an Anti-Dynasty Law to operationalize that Constitutional provision (Section 26 Article II) will surely have to continue waiting for that day “uncertain.”
And who can blame these politicians? They are regularly given fresh mandates by the electorate hopefully because they are satisfied with the service they receive and not because they simply do not know any better. I am hoping it is the former, but smart money tells us it is the latter.
THE BARRISTER 